President Trump, health care drive midterm elections
Much less than 3 weeks until Election Day, voters are thinking most about health care, the economy, and reining in President Trump — and Democratic candidates are benefitting.
At the moment, 49 percent of most likely voters back the Democratic candidate in their Home district and 42 % the Republican, according to a new Fox News national survey.  That 7-point lead is unchanged from final month, and just outdoors the poll’s margin of error.  Nine percent will vote for someone else or are undecided.
"If the election had been these days, the Residence would most likely flip," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.  "Republicans maintain waiting for the national numbers to tighten, but they have been remarkably stable this campaign season."
CLICK Right here TO Study THE POLL Benefits
Here’s how we get there:
— Prime problem: Health care.  While majorities of likely voters say the economy (54 %) and President Trump (51 percent) will be "extremely" essential to their Home vote, more voters really feel that way about health care (58 percent) — and that group prefers the Democratic candidate by a 24-point margin.  Meanwhile, a majority disapproves of how Trump is handling overall health care.
— Guardrails for Trump.  By a 53-41 percent margin, most likely voters say having the next Congress be a verify on the president is more critical than helping Trump enact his policies.  In counties where the 2016 vote was close (Hillary Clinton and Trump inside 10 points), a majority of 56 percent want a verify on Trump, and Democrats lead the generic ballot in these counties by 12 points.
— Trump job performance.  The president’s job rating is underwater by 4 points (47-51 percent).  Trump gets net damaging ratings on well being care (-16 points), immigration (-14 points), Supreme Court nominees (-8), and border security and trade (both -7).  At a negative 22, race relations is his worst concern.  He receives good marks for handling hurricanes (+two) and the economy (+6).
— The economy and family finances.  Fewer voters are confident in their personal economic future compared to 2015.  At that time, 73 % felt specific.  Right now, that’s 68 percent.  The ratings are very partisan, as twice as numerous Republicans (41 percent) as Democrats (19 %) really feel “very” confident in their financial future.  Likewise, 73 % of Republicans rate the economy positively, whilst 33 % of Democrats agree.  Overall, views are mixed:  49 % really feel the economy is in exceptional or great shape vs. 48 percent saying only fair or poor.
— Reputation contest.  Much more voters have a favorable view than an unfavorable view of the Democratic Celebration by three points, whilst the Republican Party rating is a net damaging by 7 and President Trump is below water by 9.  The Me Too Movement rating is +16.
— Ladies.  There’s a wide gender gap, as females likely voters assistance the Democratic candidate by 18 points, even though men back the Republican by six.  Given that 2016, white females have shifted from backing Trump by 9 points to backing the Democrat by two points today.  Democrats are up by 56 points amongst non-white ladies, by 35 points with females below age 45, and by 19 points amongst suburban women.
— GOP positions out of favor.  The only issue that draws clear assistance for the GOP candidate is border safety, as those naming it as really critical to their vote back the Republican by 23 points.  Seventy percent of most likely voters favor a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants at the moment functioning in the U.S.  More like Obamacare (54 % favorable) than the tax reduce law (45 % favorable) — plus wellness care (58 %) is extremely important to a lot more voters than taxes (44 %) when it comes to their congressional vote.
— Kavanaugh.  Most likely voters split over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court:  47 approve vs. 48 disapprove.  And the 46 percent saying Supreme Court nominations are really crucial to their vote are far more probably to favor the Democrat by 7 points.
— Enthusiasm.  Voters who backed Clinton two years ago are a lot more probably than Trump 2016 voters to say this election outcome is 𠇎xtremely” important (by 14 points), far more likely to be 𠇎xtremely” interested (by 11 points), and also more most likely than Trump voters to be motivated by enthusiasm for their candidate rather than by worry the other candidate may well win (by 7 points).
— Motivation.  When asked to name what a single concern will motivate them to vote this year (with out the aid of a list), the prime three talked about by likely voters are well being care (13 percent), reining in Trump (10), and the economy (9).  Subsequent, it is Democrats obtaining handle of Congress (8 %), immigration reform (7), and border safety (five).
— White voters.  Whites are far more probably to back the GOP candidate by 8 points.  In 2014, they voted for the Republicans by 22 points.
— Certainty.  Groups with the largest number saying they are specific to vote incorporate quite conservatives (89 %), voters ages 45+ (87), voters with a college degree (86), and suburban girls (84).  These with the lowest share certain to vote include Trump approvers (79 %), voters with no a college degree (77), and men beneath 45 (68).
— Majorities of most likely voters are 𠇎xtremely” concerned about the affordability of health care (65 %), denial of coverage for pre-current conditions (62), and men and women losing health insurance coverage (61).  Fewer say the same about a government takeover of health care (40).
"It’s clear that every single day the news is dominated by an additional political outrage or controversy is a missed chance for Democrats," says Anderson.  "Voters are broadly in agreement with Democrats on overall health care and the much more focus on the issue the much better for them."
— Two-thirds feel political correctness in this country has gone also far, like 82 percent of Republicans, 62 % of independents, and 48 % of Democrats.
— All round, 51 % feel very or extremely concerned political disagreements these days will lead to violence — and on that, roughly equal numbers of Democrats (52 percent) and Republicans (50 %) agree.
— Whilst ratings of Congress stay low, 23 % approve, that’s up from 15 percent in January.
The Fox News poll is primarily based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,007 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was performed below the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Organization Study (R) from October 13-16, 2018. The full poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.  For the subgroup of 841 most likely voters, the margin of sampling error is also plus or minus 3 points.
Published at Wed, 17 Oct 2018 22:00:40 +0000