WASHINGTON — The celebration not occupying the White Property seizes manage of governor’s offices in New Jersey and Virginia. An unexpectedly competitive special Senate election threatens the chamber’s balance of power. Significant legislation becoming forced by way of along partisan lines heads for a climactic holiday-season vote. Veteran lawmakers of the governing party race for the exits.
Such was the state of play at this moment in 2009 when President Barack Obama and Democrats ruled the roost. Such is the virtually parallel political landscape now with President Trump and Republicans in charge: Substitute Doug Jones of Alabama, a Democrat, for Scott Brown of Massachusetts, a Republican, and switch the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act with the Cost-effective Care Act.
It ended badly back then for Democrats, who lost the House in the 2010 midterm elections and suffered setbacks in the Senate, severely limiting Mr. Obama’s ability to pursue his agenda throughout his remaining six years in office.
History is already repeating itself. And the striking comparisons are not lost on either Democrats or Republicans.
“Republicans who rode the wave eight years ago undoubtedly can sense the shifting tides,” said David Axelrod, who was a senior adviser to Mr. Obama. “As a single who was washed more than, I can tell you, it is an unpleasant feeling.”
In November 2009, Democrats had been pressing for Senate passage of the overall health care measure soon after the House narrowly approved its version earlier in the month — just as the Republican-controlled Residence authorized its tax bill earlier this month in anticipation of a coming Senate vote subsequent week.
Republicans sensed eight years ago that Democrats have been properly on their way to political disaster. And in Massachusetts, they had been seeing convincing proof of a sea adjust in the political globe.
Mr. Brown, a Republican state senator at the time, was showing real strength in the race to replace Senator Edward M. Kennedy, whose seat was left vacant following his death in August 2009. Democrats could not quite fathom the possibility that a Republican could win in liberal Massachusetts and succeed Mr. Kennedy, the party’s longtime leader on well being policy, at such a crucial point in the overall health care fight.
But Republicans have been speedily persuaded.
“That was when it really, genuinely hit me that items had been altering,” mentioned Rob Jesmer, a prime Republican strategist who was running the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Mr. Brown went on in early January to beat Martha M. Coakley, the Democratic state lawyer general who backed the Obama agenda and produced a number of costly political missteps.
This year it is Roy S. Moore, the Republican Senate candidate in deeply conservative Alabama, who is in trouble in a race that need to be a gimme in such a state. Numerous accusations against Mr. Moore of sexual abuse and pursuit of teenage girls while an adult have opened the door to the previously unthinkable thought that Mr. Jones, a former federal prosecutor, could claim the seat on Dec. 12. That outcome would cut the Republican majority to 51, give Democrats a real chance to compete for Senate control next year and make it tougher to pass the tax bill this year.
While Senate Republicans hope to pass their version of the tax bill as early as subsequent week, it would still have to be reconciled with the House plan. If Mr. Jones wins, Republicans could then afford to drop only one particular vote if he were seated ahead of any final approval. A number of Republicans stay uncommitted on the tax program.
It is quite reminiscent of what happened when Mr. Brown’s election in January 2010 upended Democratic plans for the wellness care bill, which had passed the Senate on Christmas Eve. The victory by Mr. Brown, who campaigned against the health care law, deprived Democrats of the critical 60th vote to break a filibuster. As a result, the Home had to ultimately accept the Senate version of the law, preventing Democrats from creating alterations that would have avoided some of the difficulties that later dogged the legislation.
Democrats say the tax bill getting pushed by Republicans desperate for their initial big legislative accomplishment could blow up on them just as the overall health care bill cost Democrats.
“They consider this is their salvation, but it is most probably their Alamo,” stated Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland.
Mr. Van Hollen has expertise with political backlash: He was the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee when his party lost 63 seats and manage of the House in 2010. Now he is the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, at a time when Republicans are back on their heels.
Mr. Van Hollen said one distinction he saw amongst the two election cycles was that Republicans suffered deeper losses up and down the ballot in off-year elections this month than Democrats did in 2009.
“We knew we have been facing a huge headwind, but it wasn’t clear how huge it was going to be,” Mr. Van Hollen mentioned. He stated Republicans now confronted a “killer political wave.”
“The only query is whether it is going to grow bigger or shrink between now and November 2018,” he said.
Despite warnings of a attainable political calamity if they passed the well being care law, Democrats plunged ahead and paid the price.
Mr. Jesmer mentioned that regardless of political risks posed by the tax bill, which had not polled properly and aimed most of its positive aspects at the organization neighborhood rather than at middle-class earners, Republicans had tiny choice but to persevere.
“I don’t fault us for doing what we are attempting to do,” he mentioned. “The out-party is often going to have the advantage in the midterms, so you may well as properly ram via what you want to ram by way of.”
Republicans do not feel the tax bill will be a political albatross once voters obtain a fuller appreciation of its advantages. Of course, that is exactly what Democrats believed about the health care bill at this point in 2009.
Published at Wed, 22 Nov 2017 22:54:52 +0000