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14:54, 24 July 2018

Need to We Be Anticipating War With Iran? No, but It Could Get Nasty.


Should We Be Anticipating War With Iran? No, but It Could Get Nasty.

Ought to We Be Anticipating War With Iran? No, but It Could Get Nasty.

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President Trump and the first lady, Melania Trump, arrived aboard Air Force One particular at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, on Sunday.CreditAl Drago for The New York Times

By Rick Gladstone

The escalating invective in between President Trump and Iran&rsquos leaders, reminiscent of the president&rsquos bombastic exchanges with North Korea, have raised fears of a military confrontation in the Persian Gulf &mdash a important conduit for global oil supplies &mdash or perhaps even some thing bigger.

In a late-night Twitter message, Mr. Trump warned President Hassan Rouhani of Iran in all-capital letters of apocalyptic consequences if his country threatened the United States, rising tensions to a new level. &ldquoBE CAUTIOUS!,&rdquo Mr. Trump wrote. Oil costs surged briefly on worries about potential supply disruptions.

&ldquoI don&rsquot feel either side desires war,&rdquo stated Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a political threat consultancy in Washington. Nevertheless, Mr. Kupchan mentioned, &ldquothe Iranians are playing with a distinct fish &mdash this guy bites &mdash and that means we&rsquore entering a potentially escalatory phase, and that&rsquos a actual risk.&rdquo

Right here are answers to some standard queries about the newest face-off among Iran and the United States:

What is the Trump administration&rsquos goal?

Mr. Trump&rsquos critics say he has surrounded himself with like-minded right-wing ideologues, most notably John R. Bolton, his national safety adviser, and Mike Pompeo, his secretary of state, who would like to see regime modify in Iran and had been satisfied in Could when he scrapped American participation in the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran negotiated by Mr. Trump&rsquos predecessor, Barack Obama.

Some political analysts say Mr. Trump believes his threats of escalation against Iran may possibly force Iranian leaders to seek negotiations with him to address what he regarded as fatal flaws in the nuclear deal, in which Iran pledged to by no means obtain atomic bombs. Mr. Trump has repeatedly congratulated himself for &mdash in his view &mdash getting effectively executed such a pressure approach against North Korea&rsquos leader, Kim Jong-un, describing it as crucial to Mr. Kim&rsquos decision to halt testing nuclear bombs and missiles and engage with Mr. Trump in a summit meeting last month in Singapore.

How did we get right here?

Relations with Iran have been combustible ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the American-backed shah. But the basis for the existing spike in tensions lay at least in part in the 2016 election of Mr. Trump, who has embraced the position held by Israel and Saudi Arabia, America&rsquos closest Middle East allies, that Iran is an implacable enemy bent on becoming a nuclear-armed state.

In repudiating the 2015 nuclear agreement, Mr. Trump has reimposed and intensified nuclear-related financial sanctions on Iran, warning other nations to cease acquiring Iranian oil, the country&rsquos most essential export, or threat financial penalties from the United States. He has included Iran on a list of mainly Muslim countries subject to an American travel ban. He has placed Iran&rsquos central bank governor on a terrorism blacklist. His administration has described Iran&rsquos clerical hierarchy as an irredeemably corrupt kleptocracy, and has cheered Iranians who have protested Iran&rsquos political repressions and increasingly dire economic troubles.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran, center, with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, appropriate, in Tehran on Sunday.CreditIranian Presidency
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Published at Tue, 24 Jul 2018 05:50:31 +0000


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